Graduate student Michael Soules, along with faculty member Jim Piazza and Nazli Avdan, published “Silver Lining? The Effects of Epidemics on Terrorist Groups” in Terrorism and Political Violence. The COVID-19 pandemic spurred fears among policy makers that widespread grievances and reduction in government counterterrorism resources caused by the pandemic would enable militant groups to increase their recruitment of new combatants and launch more attacks. However, Nazli Avdan, Jim Piazza, and Michael Soules investigate the effect that epidemics had on terrorist groups that operated between 1970 and 2016. They find that epidemics actually reduced the quantity and sophistication of terrorist attacks perpetrated by militant groups. The authors argue that epidemics both reduce the resources available to terrorist groups and increase state surveillance measures in affected areas, rendering insurgent operations ineffective. You can read the article here: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09546553.2021.1987894.
